
1902-062506 release

Estimated values for CS:

This data was not been recorded for National League records from 1876-1914, or from 1916-1919, and even more recently from 1926-1950.  The American League followed this course from 1901-1913, and from 1916-1919. 

Like my earlier application of estimated strikeouts, this remedy gets credited to Arod23Garlon, an OOTP aficionado.  

The formula applies the essentials of Bill Jamess speed score, SpS4, runs scored as a percentage of times on base: (R - HR)/(H + BB - HR).  The HR factor will probably be eliminated for the next Wiki Season with missing CS stats.  This is applied to both league totals and individual players.  The result is modified by the expected stolen base success rate (.55) averaged from 1914-1915 and 1920-1925. 

[[1/(( player runs per times on base / league runs per times on base) X expected SB rate)] - 1] X SB = CS

Note:  The HR factor will probably be eliminated for the next Wiki Season with missing CS stats.  This time, another fudge factor was used, direct comparison to similar player performance from 1914-1915 and 1920-1925, to improve the results of the top base stealers.

After adding the estimated caught stealing stats, the event tables were saved, then the related ratings for run, steal, and jump factors were adjusted for all 512 records.  My tests with the 1908 season database showed that without adding these ratings, CS estimates would have had no effect.  At the same time, tests indicate that adjusted ratings have little effect without adding the estimated CS stats.

Luke Kraemer, DMB tech support engineer said this about the matter on the DMB Forum, June 19, 2006:  SB and CS are mostly driven by the Jump and Steal ratings but the CM is aware of base stealers with extreme performances like Henderson, Coleman, Wills, etc. and makes some adjustments for these really aggressive runners.

The database has not been tested for replay performance at this step in development; however, a cursory examination shows that SB and CS replays values are much closer to actual season results.

See the organizer note, About the Wiki Seasons Project, to learn more about the wiki concept for DMB database development.

Robert Bofors
June 25, 2006
